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Showing posts from February 8, 2009

Black Swans

It's amazing how many people are talking about Black Swans. Even the immanent former IBM strategist Irving Wladawsky - Breger is talking about them and citing Nissim Taleb . Meantime, Taleb is working on "domesticating the unknown."

What's Up (or Down) With The Economy?

Dr. Albin F. Turbak, Ph.D. from Sandy Springs, GA wrote a very interesting blog post picked up and printed by one of our local newspapers today. The gist of his argument is that Congress, government regulators and the Fed were seduced by unsustainable economic growth and allowed (even encouraged) banks to run what amounted to a Ponzi scheme (primarily with mortgage backed securities). When the bank Ponzi scheme collapsed, it sent the world economy into a depression based on fear and uncertainty. He blames the Ponzi scheme and those who allowed it for wiping out half the retirement savings of innocent bystander consumers. Although I largely agree with his analysis and I like his simple, easy to understand explanation, I disagree with one important aspect of what I think he is saying. To me, the value of our collective "retirement savings" was at least partly an illusion caused by the Ponzi scheme that Dr. Turbak pointed out. So, since we never really had it (because it was an